Correlation ≠ Causation

Why headlines mislead

Correlation ≠ Causation, explained simply

Two things happening together doesn't show one causes the other. A third factor, chance, or reverse causation can explain it.

Confounding

Coffee drinkers once seemed to have more lung cancer — because more coffee drinkers smoked.

Reverse causation

People who feel unwell may change their diet; the illness came first.

How we get closer

Randomized trials, consistency across studies, dose-response and plausible mechanisms.

Your logs

Patterns in your own log are co-occurrences too — useful prompts, not proof.

Evidence & sources

• Observational studies can show that two things are linked but usually can't prove that one causes the other. Evidence: established. Known: A core principle of research methods. Unknown: — Source: NIH National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, Know the Science (Current revision).

Connected topics

• Association vs. Evidence
• The Evidence Pyramid
• Erythritol
• Alcohol

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General education only, not medical advice. Drafted Oct 2026 · pending qualified expert review.